The trust center.
Every figure on this site carries five things: a value, a confidence, a trust label, a source, and the methodology version that produced it. This page explains what each means and links out to the deeper docs.
Directly observed from a marketplace event we ingested and stored — eBay sold listing, TCGCSV daily snapshot, 130point auction record. The most trustworthy class of figure in the system.
Derived from measured data with a documented model — a fair-value oracle, a market-cap rollup, a top-down macro estimate cited from a public report. Always shows a confidence band.
GPT-5 modeled estimate for periods predating our measured series (typically pre-2022 vintage). Always rendered separately from measured data with full reproducibility metadata.
Eligibility, weighting, rebalance, outlier rules, market-cap definitions, base date, divisor adjustment math.
How we built the category taxonomy, sourced public figures, modeled the rest, and handle the monthly research-cron revision audit log.
Inputs, prompt structure, reproducibility, calibration to landmark sales, why backcast values are never blended into measured series.
| Tier | Publisher | Citation | License |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tier A | The Pokémon Company International | TPCI / Pokémon Co. annual corporate profile and press releases | Public corporate disclosure |
| Tier A | eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) | eBay Inc. quarterly and annual investor materials | Public SEC filings |
| Tier A | The Toy Association | Toy Association US sales reports (Circana POS data) | Press release excerpts public; full reports member-only |
| Tier B | Circana (formerly NPD Group) | Circana US TCG point-of-sale tracking | Headline figures quoted in trade press; full data paid |
| Tier B | Newzoo | Newzoo Global Games Market Report (annual) | Headline figures public; detail paid |
| Tier B | ICv2 | ICv2 Top CCGs / Trading Card Games rankings (semi-annual) | — |
| Tier A | Collectors Universe (PSA) | PSA quarterly grading volume disclosures | Public investor disclosures while public; private 2024+ |
| Tier B | PWCC Marketplace | PWCC quarterly market reports | — |
| Tier A | Goldin Auctions | Goldin published auction results | — |
| Tier A | Heritage Auctions | Heritage Auctions published past results | — |
| Tier B | CardSearch Market — Modeled | CardSearch Market 2026.04.0 GPT-5 modeled estimate, derived from the bottom-up cross of measured eBay + TCGCSV + 130point GMV with top-down public industry figures. | Modeled — see methodology version on the figure |
- ×We never blend measured and modeled data on the same chart trace. Backcast lives on its own dashed series.
- ×We never round a confidence band into a single number when the band is wide. The range is the answer.
- ×We never silently revise a macro figure. The revision audit log is open and exportable.
- ×We never ingest from PriceCharting. Their API doesn't expose historical data, so paying for it would buy us nothing.